"So, you think the U.S. economy will be able to recover from this recession?"
"Of course it'll recover. What else could it possibly do? Just not recover? What's the worst that could happen?"
"Well, it could get worse. The markets could continue collapsing and more jobs might be lost. Is it too farfetched to suggest that trade will sink to record lows, and unemployment will skyrocket? More and more people lose their jobs, and poverty becomes endemic? In California, maybe, the collapse of the local economy and the federal economy combines to create massive social unrest. Hundreds of thousands and then millions of dissatisfied citizens organise. Peacefully, at first, and then increasingly violently, massive mobs form continuously, demanding change. Buildings are vandalised, and half a dozen people are trampled to death.
"The Governor responds by sending in the National Guard to quell the unrest, but this only exacerbates the situation, and the downtown cores of Los Angeles and San Diego see barricades erected overnight. In some places, shootouts between locals and State Troopers last days. Tanks are sent in, but the possibility for civilian casualties is deemed too high to allow for their effective use. However, three days in a well armed group of protestors raid an army depot and capture a large amount of weaponry including a number of tanks.
"With most of the National Guard stationed overseas, the Governor is forced to ask the Federal Government for help in putting down the unrest. National troops are sent in, and in the following weeks, the uprising is brutally put down. Thousands are killed, and the property damage is in the billions. Rumours arise that some units of the Federal Army displayed extreme prejudice and aggression while putting down minority members of the rebels, leading to sympathy uprisings across many southern states.
"In the face of economic collapse and the constant news story of army brutality in California inner cities, a radical group assumes control of Georgia and officially claims to secede from the union. This move is then imitated by half a dozen more states, including Texas and Maryland. The U.S. government has no choice but to respond with force to keep the American Union together.
"Soldiers are withdrawn from positions around the world, including Japan, Germany, and the Middle-East to fight the situation on the continent. Further States officially consider seceding the Union in the face of what is widely seen as the total failure of the federal government to maintain control. Within still loyal states, martial law is declared, which only serves to further antagonise the populations.
"After two months of fighting, the Union is slowly seeing positive gains against the rebels, but the conflict has broken out into a massive war, and hundreds of thousands are already dead. The United States economy is in chaos, as most private and public trading has ceased. Significant foreign investment has been withdrawn in the face of growing risk.
"With 90 per cent of American soldiers withdrawn from the Middle-East, Iran forms a coalition with rebels in Iraq and Afghanistan, and wrests the two countries from American control, before marching into Saudi Arabia. The other Arab countries join the new Persian League, and begin a combined assault on Israel. Further American soldiers from Europe and Asia are diverted to defend Israel and a few remaining oil bastions throughout the Middle-East, but the supply of oil to America is all but cut off.
"With the global economy in crisis, China takes the opportunity to insist the United States repay the trillions of dollars in outstanding loans. When the President insists this to be impossible, China declares a casus belli, and a massive invasion force overwhelms American garrisons in Taiwan. Transports, aircraft, and warships are positioned for an invasion of Japan, and the American president sends the entire 7th Fleet to defend the straits. However, a massive and unexpected Chinese assault destroys two aircraft carriers, hundreds of U.S. planes, and thousands of American sailors are sent to the bottom. The U.S. fleet, now outnumbered, withdraws to American bases in the Pacific.
"In America, oil has become almost nonexistent for consumers as military requisitions take absolute priority to fund the wars in the Middle-East and Asia, as well as what is increasingly being termed the Second Civil War. Tensions are at a breaking point, and the Vice President makes clandestine agreements with some of the rebellious states for peace in exchange for a coup. 10,000 marines storm the White House, missing the President by only minutes. The Leader of the Free World withdraws to Cheyenne Mountain with the forces that remain loyal to him.
"The Chinese invasion of Japan begins a week later, and Israel is on the brink of complete destruction. A desperate U.S. president, driven half-insane by the results of his much-vaunted 'change,' orders calculated nuclear strikes against the Chinese. Six minutes later the Israelis follow suit against the Iranians. By 25 minutes after that, 90 per cent of humanity is dead, the earth a poisoned wreck.
That's the worst that could happen."
"Ah. Well, in that case, I suppose I'm glad things are as pleasant as they are right now."
Eek. Let's go underground!! I mean literally, let's start building bunkers underneath the surface of the earth.
What a jerk!
i'ts all my fault
I think I like things now. :)
Wow! Scary to think of the worst case scenario!
elaborate sequence of ifs.
Please consider a career in publishing speculative fiction. You WILL have customers.
No one should ever, EVER say "What's the worst that could happen?" Seriously, who says that?! It's like poking fate with a sharp stick.
Sounds exhausting.
time to make that bunker useful...
WISHFUL thinking
Alas, Mericans are too damn lazy to go thru all them changes, and there's a new Grand Theft Auto game out
Now that I'm thoroughly depressed!;)
ps As a +, I did hear on NPR the other day, housing prices have stabilized a bit.
pss. I hope, while the oil prices are down, we still are able to concentrate on looking at fuel alternatives. Oil demand can simply not keep meeting supply as our population grows, and these limited resources get scarcer (not to mention it's horrible for the environment in general). However, when fuel prices are lower, people tned to fall asleep about the issue (it's human nature) but we need to take the time to predict, and plan. I know long term, prices will go up if we continue to remain on oil heavily, but it will help a lot if oil prices just go up slower than they did for a period in this previous year, that will give time for adjustment, and planning, and will help. However I suspect oil prices will still go up long term, because supply simply can not meet demand for that much longer.
interesting, but highly unlikely
People often ask what happens if China asks the U.S. to pay off its debt. The answer is that it won't. The reason is that it would economically cripple the U.S. to do so. If the U.S. were economically crippled, then China, too, would be in a similar position because it relies heavily on the United States to buy its exports. You can argue that most Chinese exports go to countries other than ours but those countries, too, rely on the United States to have a strong economy. The United States is the world's largest economy and since it is going through a contraction, so is most of the rest of the world. So goes the U.S. so goes the world. What's more is that China is connected to the West economically in a way that it never has been in the past. Now that the nation has gone from the Middle Kingdom to world player, it is in just as precarious a position as the rest of the industrialized nations in the world when any one of the strongest economies goes through a contraction.
Now that's what I call optimism.
kumquat...
I'm gonna die fucking on drugs. There will be no children.
@StarlahMantra - And I want to have sex with you. You look mean.
@CaKaLusa - Your little sister continues to be hot. She is about to age out though...
@ModernBunny - grab that mix on facebook if you know whats good. GRAB THE TIMO GARCIA MASH IT UP MIX IT IS HOT HOT HOT!
Comments (25)
Always the optimist
I'm with China when the shit goes down!
Scary. Just scary.
Eek. Let's go underground!! I mean literally, let's start building bunkers underneath the surface of the earth.
I think I like things now. :)
Wow! Scary to think of the worst case scenario!
elaborate sequence of ifs.
Please consider a career in publishing speculative fiction. You WILL have customers.
No one should ever, EVER say "What's the worst that could happen?" Seriously, who says that?! It's like poking fate with a sharp stick.
Sounds exhausting.
time to make that bunker useful...
WISHFUL thinking
Alas, Mericans are too damn lazy to go thru all them changes, and there's a new Grand Theft Auto game out
Now that I'm thoroughly depressed!;)
ps As a +, I did hear on NPR the other day, housing prices have stabilized a bit.
pss. I hope, while the oil prices are down, we still are able to concentrate on looking at fuel alternatives. Oil demand can simply not keep meeting supply as our population grows, and these limited resources get scarcer (not to mention it's horrible for the environment in general). However, when fuel prices are lower, people tned to fall asleep about the issue (it's human nature) but we need to take the time to predict, and plan. I know long term, prices will go up if we continue to remain on oil heavily, but it will help a lot if oil prices just go up slower than they did for a period in this previous year, that will give time for adjustment, and planning, and will help. However I suspect oil prices will still go up long term, because supply simply can not meet demand for that much longer.
interesting, but highly unlikely
People often ask what happens if China asks the U.S. to pay off its debt. The answer is that it won't. The reason is that it would economically cripple the U.S. to do so. If the U.S. were economically crippled, then China, too, would be in a similar position because it relies heavily on the United States to buy its exports. You can argue that most Chinese exports go to countries other than ours but those countries, too, rely on the United States to have a strong economy. The United States is the world's largest economy and since it is going through a contraction, so is most of the rest of the world. So goes the U.S. so goes the world. What's more is that China is connected to the West economically in a way that it never has been in the past. Now that the nation has gone from the Middle Kingdom to world player, it is in just as precarious a position as the rest of the industrialized nations in the world when any one of the strongest economies goes through a contraction.
Now that's what I call optimism.
kumquat...
I'm gonna die fucking on drugs. There will be no children.
@StarlahMantra - And I want to have sex with you. You look mean.
@CaKaLusa - Your little sister continues to be hot. She is about to age out though...
@ModernBunny - grab that mix on facebook if you know whats good. GRAB THE TIMO GARCIA MASH IT UP MIX IT IS HOT HOT HOT!
@ModernBunny - Oh, I killed you on facebook, sorry. http://www.dontstayin.com/groups/dj-world/chat/k-3001193
@TheBenjiDeSade - The picture says more than I ever could. ;P
no one could say "that would never happen" to anything you speculated. it's all plausible. it's all amazingly written. great post!